Top-down analysis: from the monthly chart to the 15-minute entry
Stop trading one chart in isolation. Top-down analysis stacks the timeframes so the big picture chooses your direction, the mid timeframes find the zone, and the lowest timeframe times the entry. Here's exactly what to read on each — with a sample diagram and a live chart you can practise on.
One trade, five timeframes
Each timeframe has one job. Work top-down and never skip a step — higher timeframes always win the argument.
Direction
Decide the long-term trend and whether you're hunting buys or sells. Nothing below this overrides it.
Premium / discount
Locate price inside the bigger range and the key liquidity it's drawn toward.
Structure & POI
Confirm the structural shift (BOS/CHoCH) and mark the point of interest to trade from.
Zone & sweep
Refine the daily POI, watch for the liquidity sweep and the fair value gap.
Entry
Take the entry on a confirmation (CHoCH), with stop and target defined before you click.
1. Monthly — the direction & bias
The monthly chart is your compass. You're not entering here; you're deciding which way the wind blows so every lower-timeframe decision agrees with it.
What to look for
- Overall trend: a series of higher highs & higher lows (bullish) or lower highs & lower lows (bearish).
- Where price sits in the multi-year range — near long-term highs, lows or mid?
- The major monthly level price is reacting to (a prior monthly high/low or a big round number).
- Your one decision: "Am I hunting buys or sells over the coming weeks?" Write it down.
Live monthly chart — XAUUSD (switch the symbol top-left to your pair):
2. Weekly — premium / discount & liquidity
The weekly tells you whether price is "expensive" or "cheap" within the bias, and which pool of liquidity it's likely heading for next.
What to look for
- The dealing range (last major weekly swing high to swing low) and its 50% equilibrium.
- Premium vs discount: in a bullish bias you want to buy from discount (below 50%), not chase price in premium.
- Liquidity targets: weekly highs (BSL) and lows (SSL) price is drawn to take.
- Weekly candle phase (CRT): is the week likely still ranging, or already expanding?
Live weekly chart — XAUUSD:
3. Daily — structure shift & POI
This is where the setup forms. You're confirming that order flow agrees with your bias and marking the precise area you'll trade from.
What to look for
- Break of Structure (BOS) in the direction of your bias — confirmation that momentum is aligned.
- Change of Character (CHoCH) if you're anticipating a reversal at a weekly level.
- The POI — the daily order block or fair value gap left behind by the impulsive move.
- A clear invalidation: the level beyond which the idea is simply wrong.
Live daily chart — XAUUSD:
4. 4-Hour — refine the zone, sweep & FVG
The 4-hour turns a wide daily POI into a precise zone, and shows you the manipulation (sweep) that usually precedes the real move.
What to look for
- A refined 4H order block or FVG inside the daily POI — tighter entry, smaller stop.
- A liquidity sweep: price dipping just beyond an obvious high/low to grab stops before reversing.
- Displacement away from the zone — a strong 4H candle confirming intent in your direction.
- The fair value gap the displacement leaves, a likely retracement target for your entry.
Live 4-hour chart — XAUUSD:
5. 15-Minute — the entry & the trade
Everything above has built the case. The 15-minute chart is purely about timing a precise, low-risk entry once price reaches your zone.
What to look for
- Price tapping the 4H zone you refined, ideally after a sweep.
- A 15-minute CHoCH — the first break of internal structure confirming the reversal in your direction.
- Entry on the retest of that shift or the 15m FVG it created.
- Stop beyond the swept extreme; target the next liquidity / opposite side of the range — aim for 1:3 or better.
Live 15-minute chart — XAUUSD:
Putting it all together
One coherent thought, top to bottom:
- Monthly: bullish bias — buys only.
- Weekly: price in discount, with weekly highs (BSL) as the draw on liquidity.
- Daily: bullish BOS confirms flow; mark the daily demand POI.
- 4-Hour: price sweeps a low into the POI and displaces up, leaving an FVG.
- 15-Minute: CHoCH at the zone → enter long on the retest, stop below the sweep, target the weekly highs.